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toomey.sean

User Profile Image toomey.sean
Member since : Jun-05-2009 (Verified)
3 Ideas, 6 Comments, 517 Votes

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Ideas Posted

With the DOD planning to stop the purchase of additional F-22 fighters, it's likely that the production line for the F-22 will close. When a weapons production line closes, there is little likelihood of ever restarting it in the event of a war.

At the same time, we can't afford to keep the production line open ourselves. Unlike previous times we've shutdown fighter programs, there's no replacement programs planned in the immediate future. The 6th generation technology for a purely unmanned fighter is a decade, and, probably more, away from being a practically deployed weapon.

There's no reason why this fighter can't be sold to our closest allies like Australia, Japan, Great Britain, and Germany. These allies are essential to a stable, democratic world and have proven themselves responsible with safeguarding advanced technology in the past. We've even shared ICBM technology and nuclear weapons technology with Great Britain; Great Britain's main nuclear deterrent force consists of US made Trident II-D5 SLBMs with warheads developed through joint nuclear weapons technology partnerships.

Given the risk to the world posed by rogue nations and terrorist groups, it's important to keep those close allies well equipped, militarily. In the event of a war, their help will be essential. The US can't financially afford the costs of being the world's sole policeman.

As far as the fear of the inadvertent release of stealth technologies, I'm sure that every intelligence agency worth their paycheck across the world already has access to the F-22 technology. F-117s with 1st generation stealth technology have already been lost in combat.

From a purely financial perspective, exporting the F-22 would help create jobs in the US and help our trade balance. We can use the revenue generated though exports to help build the 6th generation fighters, which will probably be unmanned.

Tactically speaking, by the time the first planes are exported and crews trained to fly them, we will already have a trained and experienced F-22 fighter pilot pool. We will also probably be very close to production of a 6th generation fleet of planes. The risk of letting this technology go offshore at the end of the US order production run is pretty low. After all, the F-22 is a late 1980's technology.

By allowing the export of the F-22, after US orders are filled, we can keep the production line open, create jobs for US workers, improve our trade balance, and generate much needed revenue for the development of the next generation of fighter aircraft. At the same time, we are strengthening the allies we need to stop rogue nations. Japan, especially, is in need of advanced fighters to counter potential threats from North Korea and China.
With the recent test of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles by North Korea, it's clear that purely bilateral weapons control treaties between the US and Russia are obsolete. Nuclear weapons, unfortunately, have been globalized.

The problem with ballistic missiles has always been that their short flight time gives other nations little opportunity to determine if the intent of the country launching them. With more and more countries obtaining ballistic missile technology, there is a far greater chance that a rocket launch will be mistaken for an attack, possibly with nuclear weapons. Many of these countries lack the early warning and tracking capability to determine the intent of a launch. As a result, the policy of many of these nations is to "launch on warning".

I think it's time for a worldwide treaty banning military ballistic missiles. Any military ballistic rocket should be limited in range to whatever is possible through modern long range artillery fire. Current gunpowder based artillery can fire, at most, around 60 miles.

I think jet powered cruise missles should be exempt from such a treaty as they have the same, or longer, flight time than most long range bombers, which gives a nation time to determine the intent of the launch and intercept an accidental launch. Additionally, the tracking systems required for detecting cruise missiles is usually much less sophisticated than the one needed for tracking an exoatmospheric ballistic missile.

From the US perspective, such a treaty would do little to harm our defense posture and would enhance global stability. Moving our weapons posture from ballistic missiles to cruise missiles and bombers would only reflect the current military reality. Ballistic missiles have proven to be pretty militarily useless because of the risk of collateral damage and the risk of an accidental assessment that the use of one is a nuclear attack.
There has been a large amount of activity on the boards and in the media regarding tax and regulation proposals for marijuana.

It seems that their needs to be a phased approach where the Federal Government formally recognizes the rights of the States, in a signed law, to regulate and enforce marijuana laws within their own borders. It should prohibit Federal law enforcement to become involved in purely intrastate marijuana commerce, unless formally asked to do so by the State.

Any law should retain Federal authority over interstate or international transfers of marijuana, but leave marijuana regulation and enforcement authority for intrastate commerce solely with the State governments. Medical marijuana laws are one example of this intrastate regulation and commerce.

If California wishes to legalize, tax, and regulate marijuana, they should be allowed to do so within their State. However, transfer of marijuana from California to Oregon would still fall under Federal jurisdiction, so would transfer from Mexico to California. If a state wishes to keep it illegal under the current Federal system, then they can do so.

This approach doesn't advocate full legalization, but allows the States to craft their own solutions to marijuana depending on their unique local situations. It also allows policy makers to study the different approaches short of a national legalization.

There are still "dry" counties and cities in the US with regards to alcohol.
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Comments Posted

toomey.sean 9 months ago
Here's a link to a proposed Zero Ballistic Missile (ZBM) treaty framework as proposed in 1993:

http://www.fas.org/asmp/library/articles/zerobal93.htm

The article makes a valid point that ballistic missiles are much easier to detect because they have to be openly tested. Nuclear weapons, on the other hand, can be hidden.
toomey.sean 9 months ago
The Chemical Weapons Ban is a good example of a treaty that has worked. Those countries that didn't follow it are very isolated.

If you limit the amount of ballistic missiles, it's a lot easier and cheaper to target your own forces.

toomey.sean 9 months ago
Besides the public relations value of pushing a global ballistic missile ban, such a policy would allow us to take funds currently allocated to the maintenance of the 40+ year old ballistic arsenal and spend those precious defense dollars on weapons we can actually use in today's combat, like cruise missiles, attack submarines, and bombers.

This is not a peacenik proposal. It is a realpolitik proposal that advances us in the direction of nuclear disarmament while enhancing our own security. The most likely response to a nuclear attack by a rogue nation today is a large bomber and cruise missile strike against the rogue nation, not a ballistic missile attack.

Draw a map from any of the US ballistic missile launch fields to North Korea on Google Earth. You'll notice that all of the trajectories carry the missile over Russian, European, and Chinese airspace. The same goes for a ballistic missile attack on Iran. This makes them absolutely useless to us because we can't fly them anywhere close to Russia, China, or Europe without the high risk of starting an all-out, accidental nuclear war.

Ballistic missiles are an obsolete, dangerously unstable World War II technology. The advanced industrial nations have much more to gain by eliminating the technology on a global scale. Only an advanced nation can field a bomber and/or cruise missile force capable of a retaliatory strike.

A vast majority of the developing nations win because they don't have to engage in an arms race for advanced ballistic missile technology. They can spend their money on development.

I'm a big believer in Ronald Reagan's phrase of "trust, but verify". To make this work, you have to build a full, worldwide ABM system and have a strong mechanism ensuring treaty compliance, unlike the failed compliance mechanisms of the NPT.
toomey.sean 9 months ago
I keep hearing financial professionals say that "derivatives serve an important function."

I don't see it.

I believe I agree with Warren Buffet that they are "financial weapons of mass destruction." I can think of a half dozen instances in the past 10 years where they have nearly caused an economic collapse.
toomey.sean 9 months ago
There are a lot of vested interests making tons of money off of the current policy. Marijuana legalization is probably not controversial in Los Angeles, CA, but there's an ingrained fear of it in Goodland, KS.

Taking an slow, incremental approach to marijuana policy reform would allow people to get enough empirical data to show, definitively, which policy works. Right now, the policy is being driven by propaganda and fear mongering, not rational thought.

With a slow approach, as opposed to immediate, full legalization, you can back off quickly if it doesn't work. That takes much of the "allergic reaction" out of marijuana policy reform.

Colorado experimented with limited gaming legalization in the late 1980's and early 1990's. It turned into a disaster when entire quiet Colorado mountain towns turned into corporately owned megaresorts. All of the local residents could no longer afford to live in those towns. As a result, Colorado backed off the policy.

There have been recent anti-tobacco policies put before Congress that actually have a good chance of passing. Twenty years ago, those policies would have never been discussed, much less printed into a Bill.

Unfortunately, politics is often about "tracking the money". If a policy change is going to immediately disrupt an economy, people are going to have an allergic reaction to the policy. Most people want to really look before they leap into full legalization and, outside of the propaganda, there's very little data.
toomey.sean 9 months ago
I meant to type "Codify". Sorry for the typo.